Game number 3

The score (after 2 games) is: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 6, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 0 (match to 11 points)

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Match Information

Date	mai 09, 2009
Event	FibsLeaGammon Exhibition Match 2009
Place	FIBS
Annotator	juggler
Comment	Franck "Tomawaky" Del Rio, the organizer of FibsLeaGammon, managed to arrange a public match between Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon and the winner of the 2009 Masters Tournament. A few good rolls got me in that position and I had the honor to play the No 1 of the BG Giants List. My late grandmother would have said "That's the way you play with students!" and laughed her head off. Falafel was much politer :-).

Move number 1: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 12

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 167, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MIBoAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 13/11 6/5

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,047)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/23 13/11	-0,191
			0,494 0,137 0,005 - 0,506 0,139 0,005
•	2	3	13/11 6/5	-0,238 ( -0,047)
			0,490 0,140 0,005 - 0,510 0,151 0,010
	3	2	24/21	-0,164 ( +0,028)
			0,502 0,130 0,006 - 0,498 0,135 0,004

Move number 2: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 52

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 164, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 167
Position ID: 0HPkATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIlqAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves 13/11 13/8

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,035	(Money: +0,036)
	0,510 0,151 0,010 - 0,490 0,140 0,005
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,238
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,762
3.	Double, take	+0,135	-0,103
Proper cube action:		No double, take (11,9%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/22 13/8	-0,094
			0,434 0,110 0,003 - 0,566 0,165 0,006
•	2	3	13/11 13/8	-0,109 ( -0,015)
			0,425 0,123 0,005 - 0,575 0,181 0,009
	3	2	13/8 6/4	-0,070 ( +0,025)
			0,439 0,121 0,005 - 0,561 0,177 0,010

Move number 3: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 52

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 164, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 160
Position ID: 4PPIATDQc+QBMA Match ID: MIFqAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 8/3 5/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	3	8/3 5/3	-0,197
			0,496 0,163 0,008 - 0,504 0,152 0,008
	2	3	13/11 13/8	-0,241 ( -0,044)
			0,489 0,150 0,006 - 0,511 0,158 0,010
	3	2	13/6	-0,269 ( -0,072)
			0,484 0,148 0,007 - 0,516 0,161 0,010

Move number 4: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 24

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 157, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 160
Position ID: jGfkATDg88gBMA Match ID: cAlxAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves 8/4 6/4

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		-0,003	(Money: -0,003)
	0,504 0,152 0,008 - 0,496 0,163 0,008
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,197
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,803
3.	Double, take	+0,088	-0,109
Proper cube action:		No double, take (11,9%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 6/4	+0,275
			0,520 0,170 0,009 - 0,480 0,153 0,008
	2	2	13/9 11/9	+0,092 ( -0,183)
			0,478 0,144 0,007 - 0,522 0,166 0,008
	3	2	24/20 13/11	+0,013 ( -0,262)
			0,464 0,131 0,009 - 0,536 0,195 0,008

Move number 5: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 51

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 157, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 154
Position ID: mOfIATCMZ+QBMA Match ID: MIFmAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 24/23 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	3	24/23 13/8	-0,441
			0,448 0,146 0,008 - 0,552 0,201 0,010
	2	3	13/8 11/10	-0,479 ( -0,039)
			0,432 0,143 0,007 - 0,568 0,185 0,011
	3	2	13/8 6/5	-0,425 ( +0,015)
			0,455 0,147 0,007 - 0,545 0,194 0,016

Move number 6: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 44

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 151, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 154
Position ID: jOfIASiY58gBMA Match ID: cAlyAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves 24/16 6/2*(2)

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,159	(Money: +0,162)
	0,552 0,201 0,010 - 0,448 0,146 0,008
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,441
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,559
3.	Double, take	+0,422	-0,018
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3,2%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0,258)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,427)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/20(2) 6/2*(2)	+0,836
			0,646 0,236 0,011 - 0,354 0,076 0,002
•	2	3	24/16 6/2*(2)	+0,577 ( -0,258)
			0,587 0,221 0,013 - 0,413 0,129 0,006
	3	2	24/20 13/9 6/2*(2)	+0,695 ( -0,141)
			0,606 0,262 0,018 - 0,394 0,121 0,007

Annotation

gumpi : na hit, anchor
juggler : I am a bit nervous ai guess
Picasso : :o)
falafelBG : not much u could do there
juggler : I looked at my board and thought !ah, 2 and 4 are open" that's a good duplication" it was 1 and 3 ;-)
Schigolch : why didnt juggler hit?
stog : indeed
Picasso : dunno

juggler -> People said that I was chatting too much, and maybe I was. I wanted to gain initiative. I looked at my board and thought "ah, he needs 2 and 4 to enter, that duplicates nicely with the 2 and 4 he needs to hit me on the 16". But he needed 1 and 3 to enter, so it was actually an anti-duplication. A mistake I could not afford against falafel.

Move number 7: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 23

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 153, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 138
Position ID: ZubIESCM58gBUA Match ID: MAFtAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves bar/22 11/9*

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,309)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/22 11/9*	-0,249
			0,490 0,171 0,009 - 0,510 0,181 0,010
	2	2	bar/22 24/22	-0,462 ( -0,213)
			0,413 0,100 0,002 - 0,587 0,128 0,004
	3	0	bar/22 13/11	-0,594 ( -0,345)
			0,416 0,120 0,004 - 0,584 0,209 0,009

Move number 8: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 51

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 148, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 147
Position ID: jOfCASRm5sgBUA Match ID: cIlmAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves bar/24 11/6

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,064	(Money: +0,066)
	0,522 0,186 0,009 - 0,478 0,166 0,008
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,294
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,706
3.	Double, take	+0,247	-0,047
Proper cube action:		No double, take (6,3%)

Alert: bad move ( -0,107)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	bar/24 8/3*	+0,301
			0,506 0,209 0,012 - 0,494 0,175 0,014
•	2	3	bar/24 11/6	+0,194 ( -0,107)
			0,488 0,179 0,007 - 0,512 0,166 0,009
	3	0	bar/20 11/10	+0,167 ( -0,134)
			0,492 0,169 0,008 - 0,508 0,179 0,008

Annotation

Zorba : 8/3*.. better board, behind in match..
dropper : he's so stressed he's not seeing anything
mano : hit !!!
Schigolch : and cube after entry
gumpi : double
mano : double hit !!!
Kari_Grandi : I can imagine jugglers stress defending fibs honor in front of all these watchers
gumpi : hit both

juggler -> Yes, funny... I didn't play the way I normally would, self confident to the point of being cocky. Hitting seems strong here in restrospect, since I the better board and it prevents falafel from using his nice builders effectively. Thus hitting has tactical advantages (as always) as well as strategic ones.

Move number 9: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 65

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 148, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 141
Position ID: Zs7BATCM58IBJA Match ID: MAF3AWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 22/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/11	-0,300
			0,493 0,148 0,009 - 0,507 0,215 0,007
	2	2	24/13	-0,350 ( -0,051)
			0,482 0,134 0,009 - 0,518 0,224 0,006
	3	0	13/8 9/3	-0,649 ( -0,349)
			0,416 0,125 0,006 - 0,584 0,233 0,010

Move number 10: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 46

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 137, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 141
Position ID: jOeSAyBmzsEBMA Match ID: cAl6AWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves 24/14*

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,107	(Money: +0,111)
	0,520 0,215 0,008 - 0,480 0,145 0,008
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,334
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,666
3.	Double, take	+0,313	-0,022
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3,2%)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,392)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	24/14*	+0,759
			0,634 0,246 0,011 - 0,366 0,100 0,003
	2	0	24/18 13/9	+0,047 ( -0,711)
			0,457 0,164 0,007 - 0,543 0,193 0,009
	3	0	24/18 8/4	+0,045 ( -0,714)
			0,456 0,159 0,007 - 0,544 0,180 0,006

Move number 11: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 31

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 151, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 131
Position ID: Zs7BBSCM58IBUA Match ID: MIFlAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves bar/22 9/8

Alert: bad move ( -0,090)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	bar/24 13/10	-0,908
			0,345 0,089 0,002 - 0,655 0,198 0,015
•	2	3	bar/22 9/8	-0,998 ( -0,090)
			0,350 0,089 0,003 - 0,650 0,255 0,009
	3	2	bar/24 8/5	-0,881 ( +0,027)
			0,365 0,095 0,003 - 0,635 0,218 0,021

Annotation

juggler -> Intersting. gnubg wants to play this very differently. But falafel has seen that I'm reluctant to hit openly and exploits that.

Move number 12: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 11

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 147, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 131
Position ID: jOfBASRmzsEFIA Match ID: cIlkAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves 8/5 6/5

Alert: missed double ( -0,204)! [very bad]

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,463	(Money: +0,471)
	0,650 0,255 0,009 - 0,350 0,089 0,003
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0,998
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,002
3.	No double	+0,794	-0,204
Proper cube action:		Double, take

Alert: bad move ( -0,103)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	4/3(2) 2/1(2)	+0,915
			0,664 0,359 0,009 - 0,336 0,088 0,003
•	2	3	8/5 6/5	+0,812 ( -0,103)
			0,649 0,227 0,009 - 0,351 0,083 0,003
	3	0	8/7(2) 4/3*(2)	+0,763 ( -0,152)
			0,632 0,258 0,009 - 0,368 0,106 0,004

Annotation

juggler : hmmm
falafelBG : interesting
juggler : my gut feeling is too little ammo to hit both
falafelBG : why not 2 on the roof?

juggler -> And he is vindicated! I should have hit here. I thought I'm ahead so I can play less risky, and the builders I need to finish the blitz are too far away. I may have been too timid. Not my style normally, is it :-).

The cube: I still don't see the urgency to cube here the way gnubg does, sorry. But that's probably because I didn't want to move the proper moves, either ;-).

Move number 13: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 12

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 147, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 127
Position ID: ZpvBBSCM58EBJA Match ID: MIFoAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 13/11*/10

Alert: bad move ( -0,108)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/22 6/5	-0,892
			0,325 0,060 0,001 - 0,675 0,158 0,004
•	2	3	13/11*/10	-1,000 ( -0,108)
			0,353 0,108 0,005 - 0,647 0,284 0,017
	3	2	24/22 8/7	-0,820 ( +0,072)
			0,335 0,065 0,001 - 0,665 0,146 0,004

Annotation

juggler : too far to go
falafelBG : not sure
juggler : me neither
juggler : but if you anchor advanced I'm in trouble
falafelBG : could be bad
juggler : I'm leading anyway, so why not play on a solid base

juggler -> Again I think falafel felt safer against me than he would have against gnubg, so covering the 22 didn't seem as urgent.

Move number 14: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 35

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 144, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 138
Position ID: jOeJASRmm8EBUA Match ID: cIl1AWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves bar/20 13/10

Alert: missed double ( -0,190)! [very bad]

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,474	(Money: +0,481)
	0,647 0,284 0,017 - 0,353 0,108 0,005
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1,000
2.	Double, take	+1,062	+0,062
3.	No double	+0,810	-0,190
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	bar/20 24/21	+0,653
			0,592 0,230 0,016 - 0,408 0,141 0,005
•	2	3	bar/20 13/10	+0,652 ( -0,001)
			0,591 0,222 0,012 - 0,409 0,129 0,006
	3	2	bar/20 8/5	+0,572 ( -0,081)
			0,569 0,232 0,013 - 0,431 0,141 0,008

Annotation

gumpi : still a double
mano : cube ?
Picasso : juggler has tu double!!!!!!
Schigolch : not anymore
Kari_Grandi : juggler is used to chat a lot while playing though
PersianLord : yes
resh_lakish : double. come on. get on the board
falafelBG : u can win so many times
resh_lakish : he has no board

juggler -> It didn't occur to me to cube here, admittedly.

Move number 15: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 14

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 144, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 130
Position ID: ZpuJASGM54kBJA Match ID: MIFwAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 6/5*/1*

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,331)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	3	6/5/1	-1,000
			0,350 0,130 0,006 - 0,650 0,310 0,025
	2	3	10/5*	-1,000 ( +0,000)
			0,319 0,095 0,005 - 0,681 0,329 0,021
	3	2	8/4 6/5*	-1,000 ( +0,000)
			0,331 0,113 0,007 - 0,669 0,442 0,083

Annotation

juggler : now as well
falafelBG : when i dont enter or enter with 1 man

Move number 16: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 33

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 139, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 136
Position ID: GeeJASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cIltAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler cannot move

Alert: missed double ( -0,166)! [very bad]

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		+0,493	(Money: +0,500)
	0,650 0,310 0,025 - 0,350 0,130 0,006
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1,000
2.	Double, take	+1,145	+0,145
3.	No double	+0,834	-0,166
Proper cube action:		Double, pass

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,593)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Annotation

Saame here. falafel surely was happy that I didn't cube... I'm glad I didn't too.

Move number 17: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 52

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 139, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 136
Position ID: ZpuJAWAZ54kBJA Match ID: MIFqAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 8/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	3	8/1	-0,141
			0,503 0,266 0,013 - 0,497 0,196 0,009
	2	3	24/22 6/1	-0,201 ( -0,060)
			0,482 0,228 0,010 - 0,518 0,162 0,005
	3	0	13/11 6/1	-0,280 ( -0,138)
			0,494 0,241 0,007 - 0,506 0,221 0,020

Move number 18: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 12

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 132, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 136
Position ID: M86JASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cIloAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves bar/23

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		-0,077	(Money: -0,078)
	0,497 0,196 0,009 - 0,503 0,266 0,013
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,141
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,859
3.	Double, take	+0,096	-0,045
Proper cube action:		No double, take (5,0%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/23	+0,135
			0,487 0,186 0,011 - 0,513 0,261 0,012

Move number 19: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 13

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 132, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 134
Position ID: ZpuJAUgzzokBJA Match ID: MIFsAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 8/5 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/5 6/5	-0,062
			0,530 0,263 0,012 - 0,470 0,187 0,011
	2	2	10/7 8/7	-0,457 ( -0,395)
			0,445 0,190 0,007 - 0,555 0,222 0,011
	3	0	10/6	-0,545 ( -0,482)
			0,429 0,167 0,006 - 0,571 0,224 0,010

Move number 20: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 61

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 128, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 134
Position ID: M5uJASRmm4kBSA Match ID: cAlnAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler cannot move

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		-0,093	(Money: -0,094)
	0,486 0,196 0,009 - 0,514 0,257 0,014
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,108
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,892
3.	Double, take	+0,051	-0,056
Proper cube action:		No double, take (5,9%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,397)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 21: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon to play 15

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 128, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 134
Position ID: ZpuJAUgzm4kBJA Match ID: MIF0AWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon moves 8/2*

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0,318)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2*	+0,093
			0,560 0,374 0,013 - 0,440 0,204 0,022
	2	2	13/8 10/9	-0,149 ( -0,242)
			0,503 0,261 0,011 - 0,497 0,201 0,014
	3	2	10/4	-0,268 ( -0,361)
			0,484 0,257 0,011 - 0,516 0,228 0,015

Move number 22: Peter Schneider aka the juggler to play 43

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 122, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 136
Position ID: azaJASRmm4kBYA Match ID: cAluAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler moves bar/21

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity		-0,217	(Money: -0,221)
	0,461 0,212 0,022 - 0,539 0,359 0,018
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0,038
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+1,038
3.	Double, take	-0,053	-0,015
Proper cube action:		No double, take (1,5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/21	-0,136
			0,428 0,180 0,012 - 0,572 0,390 0,021

Move number 23: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 122, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 132
Position ID: ZpuJAUJrNokBJA Match ID: MAFgAWAAAAAA

• Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0,632)! [very bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0,392

(Money: +0,464)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0,404

Double, pass

+1,000

+0,596

Double, take

-0,228

-0,632

Proper cube action:

No double, take (51,4%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0,601	0,401	0,013	-	0,399	0,143	0,010	+0,392	+0,404
Standard error	0,002	0,003	0,001	-	0,002	0,002	0,001	0,007	0,014
Player Peter Schneider aka the juggler owns 2-cube	0,606	0,394	0,024	-	0,394	0,138	0,011	+0,238	-0,228
Standard error	0,003	0,005	0,005	-	0,003	0,003	0,001	0,021	0,032

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

499 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858303510 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0,32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

falafelBG : trick dbl
juggler : maybe

PersianLord : take
dropper : easy take
Kari_Grandi : thats how we kept russians out of our borders in WWII ;)
Schigolch : yes, that's the problem with juggler right now, dropper
PersianLord : i think i should donate a bit of my testosterone to peter =)
dropper : someone give the guy some ice water
dropper : he psychologically needs to win a game
Zorba : he won't be too happy with that last shot, Jooooohn...

Move number 24: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon doubles to 2

Pip counts: Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon 122, Peter Schneider aka the juggler 132
Position ID: ZpuJAUJrNokBJA Match ID: MBlgAWAAAAAA

• Peter Schneider aka the juggler rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -1,228)! [very bad]

Alert: wrong double ( -0,632)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0,392

(Money: +0,464)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0,404

Double, pass

+1,000

+0,596

Double, take

-0,228

-0,632

Proper cube action:

No double, take (51,4%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0,601	0,401	0,013	-	0,399	0,143	0,010	+0,392	+0,404
Standard error	0,002	0,003	0,001	-	0,002	0,002	0,001	0,007	0,014
Player Peter Schneider aka the juggler owns 2-cube	0,606	0,394	0,024	-	0,394	0,138	0,011	+0,238	-0,228
Standard error	0,003	0,005	0,005	-	0,003	0,003	0,001	0,021	0,032

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

499 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858303510 and quasi-random dice

Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0,32

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

juggler -> Funny. Pity to misread a position like that.

This is a key moment in this match; my position is much stronger than I think, and falafel knows that (what the position is like and what I think about it). He said "trick cube" after I had passed, and I didn't see that I blundered even then. (I have a hard time recognizing it even now, no, really.) So falafel "blundered" on purpose because he felt I would pass here, and rightly so. This cube is a 0.600 blunder. Distributed over the 140 unforced moves it alone accounts for more than 4 mp/move of gnubg's estimated error rate for falafel.

As for the pass: I have made more than one cube error > 1.0 emg in my life, but I think none of them were incorrect *passes* -- I usually *take* too much. This 1.2 (!!) mistake accounts for about 8 mp/move of my errors, so the rest of the match I didn't play too badly. Alas, it didn't matter.

So why did I pass this? I looked at falafel's rolls that cover, and there were many: any 6; 33; 42; 51; 53; 44; 22; 11 would put another one on the bar and maybe allow him to move the blot away. 43 would pick my 3rd blot up. That's 21 good rolls, some of them catastrophic, all of them giving him good gammon chances. 21 covering rolls is not *that* much, but I need to hit to get back into the game. He may pick up my third checker. It all seems pretty doomed.

I obviously underestimate that he's also vulnerable (he has 4 blots on the board!) and will still need to escape with numbers that duplicate with covering and hitting. My board is also in good shape.

But still ;-).

Later note: A rollout shows that the 2-ply ealuation was basically correct; the take is still a 1.2 error. In a money game, btw, the cube offer would be correct (and the pass would be a 0.5 error); it's the match score that makes the cube a blunder here.

Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon wins 1 point

Game statistics for game 3
Player	Matvey "Falafel" Natanzon	Peter Schneider aka the juggler
Checker play statistics
Total moves	11	11
Unforced moves	11	7
Unmarked moves	8	8
Moves marked doubtful	1	0
Moves marked bad	2	2
Moves marked very bad	0	1
Error total EMG (MWC)	-0,245 ( -1,068%)	-0,485 ( -2,116%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)	-22,3 ( -0,097%)	-69,3 ( -0,302%)
Chequerplay rating	Casual player	Awful!
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	2
Rolls unmarked	8	7
Rolls marked unlucky	2	2
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck total EMG (MWC)	-0,888 ( -3,875%)	-0,285 ( -1,243%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC)	-80,7 ( -0,352%)	-25,9 ( -0,113%)
Luck rating	Go to bed	Bad dice, man!
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	11	12
Close or actual cube decisions	1	12
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	0
Passes	0	1
Missed doubles below CP (EMG (MWC))	0	1 (-0,204 ( -0,891%))
Missed doubles above CP (EMG (MWC))	0	2 (-0,356 ( -1,554%))
Wrong doubles below DP (EMG (MWC))	1 (-0,632 ( -2,756%))	0
Wrong doubles above TG (EMG (MWC))	0	0
Wrong takes (EMG (MWC))	0	0
Wrong passes (EMG (MWC))	0	1 (-1,228 ( -5,358%))
Error total EMG (MWC)	-0,632 ( -2,756%)	-1,788 ( -7,803%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)	-631,5 ( -2,756%)	-149,0 ( -0,650%)
Cube decision rating	Awful!	Awful!
Overall statistics
Error total EMG (MWC)	-0,876 ( -3,824%)	-2,273 ( -9,919%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC)	-73,0 ( -0,319%)	-119,6 ( -0,522%)
Snowie error rate	-39,8 ( +0,000%)	-103,3 ( +0,000%)
Overall rating	Awful!	Awful!
Actual result	+5,18%	-5,18%
Luck adjusted result	+7,81%	-7,81%

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Output generated Sat May 16 00:09:59 2009 by GNU Backgammon 0.90-mingw 20090316 (HTML Export version 1.207)